The new, rebranded and energized African Democratic Congress (ADC) roared into the Nigerian political scene some six months ago. We still remember what it was like then. It felt like a bright new day. Full of promise. The party appeared every inch like a new bride; like the bride party whose entry could herald a new order; a new arrangement that could change Nigeria for good. Given the state of affairs in the Nigerian polity, the expectation was that the ADC, like the hurricane that it appeared to be at inception, would step forward with gusto and boldness. Such disposition is what is needed to steer the country out of stormy waters.
Before the ADC showed up, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) was all over the place, showing off like the peacock. It strutted across the country, celebrating the death of the opposition. But the entry of ADC into the scene jolted it considerably. It came to realize for the first time after the death of PDP that the bones of the opposition were yet to be interred. The realization mattered. It aroused the APC to a looming reality, to wit, that a political party that could clip its flapping wings was around the corner. That was the mood of the polity at that time. That was APC’s most troubling discomfort then.
It is strange, however, that six months down the line, the ADC is still incubating. It is yet to have a life of its own. It even faced the threat of a reversal as it was stepping out. What was responsible for the twist in the plot? As a coalition arrangement, the ADC was programmed to incorporate disparate political parties, notably the PDP, Labour Party, and elements from the defunct Congress for Progressive Change, among others. The agglomeration of these parties was promising. It was projected that it would make the ADC a fighting force; a formidable political platform that could give the APC a bloody nose. This macho image of the ADC fitted into people’s perception of the party. The perception offered hope. It offered prospects of a radical displacement.
“Like Buhari who was consumed by the desire to be civilian president after testing presidential power for some 18 months as military head of state, Atiku is insisting on becoming president after serving as vice president of the country.”
However, as time ticks faster towards the 2027 general elections, the ADC is yet to take control of its avowed mission and vision. If anything, the initial goodwill that greeted its entry is fading away. The party is looking as morose as the rest of the confused lot that strut about as political parties.
This pitiable state of affairs is borne out of a certain snag. The top echelon of the party is peopled by high profile political actors whose exploits can only be likened to that of institutions. Notable among them are Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Mr Peter Obi. These two gentlemen took the second and third positions respectively in the 2023 presidential election. In that election, both Atiku and Obi felt strongly like the real victors. They challenged the claim by Bola Tinubu to have won the election. Peter Obi particularly held on to the position that he won the election. He said he had facts and figures to prove his claim. But the courts dictated otherwise.
Having come close to winning the presidency, according to the official results of the February 25, 2023 presidential election, Atiku and Obi see themselves as potential and possible presidents of Nigeria. This feeling has become even more accentuated in the face of Tinubu’s monumental failures. Analysts believe that a non-performing Tinubu would be easy to defeat in the 2027 presidential election. Who, between Atiku and Obi, will deliver this technical knockout to Tinubu? This is the crux of the matter. It is the bone of contention. It is the scramble for this bone that snatched the fire away from ADC. As it stands now, the party has lost its initial verve. That is why some nine months or so to the commencement of party primaries for the 2027 general elections, the ADC is yet to discover its mission, let alone fashion out a roadmap for 2027. The party is behaving as if 2027 can wait or will be put off indefinitely for its own sake.
Sadly for the party and those who subscribe to it, 2027 cannot wait. As a matter of fact, the ADC will lose steam and appeal if it does not resolve its contradictions fast and now.
Quite a number of people believe that Atiku is at the centre of the contradiction that the party suffers. The former vice president is afflicted by the Muhammadu Buhari syndrome. Like Buhari who was consumed by the desire to be civilian president after testing presidential power for some 18 months as military head of state, Atiku is insisting on becoming president after serving as vice president of the country. For him, it is an ambition to end all ambitions. The passion cannot be subordinated to any other issue. Like Buhari as well, the understanding between the north and the south about rotation of the presidency is hogwash. He does not believe in it. It should be recalled that all through the years that Buhari stood election for the office of president, he never paid heed to the north-south understanding. He ran in every election cycle whether it was deemed the turn of the south or that of the north. After several attempts, Buhari had his way ultimately. Atiku is playing the same card. That is why he is not persuaded by the argument that it is the turn of the south to produce the president in 2027. For this reason, he is bent on standing for election in 2027. He may also be considering the fact that the coming election year could be his last chance, based on age, to stand election to the office of president.
This is the dilemma that ADC is battling with. It takes deftness to deal with such a dicey situation, for it could ruin the chances of the party if it is not properly managed. Without an Atiku with his uncompromising stand about the presidency, ADC would have graduated to the level of substance by now. It probably would have gone to town with Peter Obi, the man who has become an institution that cannot easily be diminished. This man, more than any other Nigerian who has ever stood election for the office of president, has proved that Nigerians can vote for a better Nigeria if they see someone that can guarantee them that. In 2023, the people massively voted for Obi because they believe that he is the change they are looking for. Even though the statement they made through their votes in 2023 was thwarted, the invisible powers that took Obi to a height many could not imagine are still alive and kicking. Can Obi afford to dash the hopes of this multitude on the altar of ADC Atiku dilemma? That is not likely. But the dilemma constitutes difficult times for ADC.
