“History will normally repeat itself if those who are supposed to learn from its lessons refuse to do so. Today, the ADC, like PDP in 2022, is caught in the lurch. It is unable to decide whether its presidential ticket should go south or north.”
It is no longer news that the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the coalition political party , and the most formidable opposition platform, that is believed to have the capacity to wrest power from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) performed woefully in the just concluded Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Area Council elections.
The ADC did not win any chairmanship seat. The supposedly unpopular APC won five out of the six chairmanship seats. Even the dying Peoples Democratic Party ( PDP) won one chairmanship position.
This situation is lamentable to the supporters of ADC. The development is capable of wounding their psyche and could lead to a lack of confidence in the capacity of the party to compete seriously in the forthcoming presidential elections.
I have said time and time again in this Column that the ADC is in deep slumber. It is so laid back that Nigerians are seriously doubting its capacity and capability to show the ruling APC the exit door at the polls. My worry stems largely from the lack of momentum that has crippled a political party that is supposed to be flying high. After its official unveiling in July last year, Nigerians expected that the party would hit the ground running. But that has not been the case. The party has been behaving as if it has no mission. It has not rolled out any that will engage the attention of the Nigerian people. The party, to a large extent, has been timid and uninspiring. Its voice as an opposition party is subdued. It has not been engaging national issues in a manner that will make the APC and its foot soldiers look small. In fact, ADC’s interventions are lame. The deliveries are lacking in aggressive correctness. An opposition party that aspires to dismantle an entrenched establishment must distinguish itself in matters of national discourse. It must demonstrate that its ideas and approaches are superior to those of the existing order. So far, the ADC, since its unveiling, has not done anything that comes close to what I have outlined. But it is easy to understand why the ADC is caught in this mire. The party is not yet a united entity. There exists, at moment, two differing and opposing tendencies, each seeking to have an upper hand in the power game. One tendency is represented by the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, while the other revolves around the former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi. Both men are intent on picking the party’s ticket as its presidential flag bearer. None appears ready to yield ground to the other. The implication of this is that the party is investing valuable time and energy in dealing with internal divide. As it does so, time is going. Opportunities are being lost; and people’s interest in the party is thinning down. This situation constitutes difficult times for the ADC.
Part of the problem is that the leadership of the party is looking morose. It does not have the courage to make pronouncements that could resolve the logjam, one way or another. For instance, the party, under its present leadership, should be able to take a decision on zoning. Is it zoning to the south or to the north? Or is it leaving the ticket open for grabs by anybody from the two regions? Whatever may be the case, the party is expected to take a principled stand on this. It may not be palatable in the short run. But it will serve the party’s long term purpose. The present disposition towards fence-sitting is self destructive. It is part of the problem that led to the party’s humiliating defeat in the FCT polls.
The ongoing power play within the ADC coalition is pointing in one direction. It reminds us of the ding dong battle in PDP in the run-up to the 2023 general elections. The thorny issue then within the PDP, as it is now with the ADC, revolved around zoning. Nyesom Wike, then governor of Rivers State wanted the office of the president to be zoned to the south. He was interested in contesting for the highest political office in the land.
Part of his argument was that the office of the party’s national chairman was held by the north. Thus, in line with the principles guiding zoning of political offices, the presidential ticket ought to be zoned to the south. Whether Wike was right or wrong, the expectation then was that the relevant organs of the party would sit at a round table and get the matter sorted out as quickly as possible. Regrettably, those who were supposed to take the bull by the horns chose to play the ostrich. They could not confront the matter. Instead, they spoke from both sides of their mouths. By the time they grudgingly decided to throw the ticket open to both the north and the south, substantial damage had been done to the thread that held the party together.
How the lack of cohesion within the PDP cost it the presidential seat is now history. But history will normally repeat itself if those who are supposed to learn from its lessons refuse to do so. Today, the ADC, like PDP in 2022, is caught in the lurch. It is unable to decide whether its presidential ticket should go south or north. Yet, it is in the party’s strategic interest to define and decide on this matter early enough. But the party is not doing so. It is adopting the approach that ruined PDP, yet it is expecting a different outcome. This is self-delusion of the first order.
If the ADC lost disastrously in the FCT Area Council elections, it is because the party is not yet a united front. The coalition is labouring under the weight of opposing tendencies. There is the Atiku tendency; and there is the Obi tendency. Both are riding forth in parallel lines. A meeting point looks unlikely unless a new political map is redrawn that will play down and obliterate the existing parallel lines.
But what rankles in all this is that ADC’s loss is APC’s gain. Much more than that, ADC’s disintegration will destabilize the polity itself. It will dampen the morale of Nigerians who are looking up to ADC to rescue their country from the vice grip of political buccaneers. Nigerians are almost unanimous in their expression of pain and anguish over APC’s misrule. Will the intractable power play in ADC oil the wheels of APC’s return? This question pulsates with anxiety and uncertainty. Nigerians can not afford a prolongation of the bad order due to the indiscretions and bad judgment of a few.
