The leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), needs to pick the lessons in William Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar that: “There is a tide in the affairs of men, which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries”. The verse simply teaches that there are opportune moments in life that must be seized to achieve success. Such moments are not common. When they are lost, the entire efforts are wasted.
The ADC is currently at that ominous juncture. More than any other factor, the remaining weeks to the party’s presidential primary, present it with the delicate choices of playing its card well and remaining a force to reckon with in the 2027 polls or fizzle on the altars of greed and selfishness. No matter how they are looked at, the two options are tough for the party and its leadership.
Make no mistakes about it; the ADC is the party to watch and the last hope of the ordinary Nigerians in the poll. The election is for the party to lose. Forget about the propaganda, blackmail and conscription of the governors, legislators and other members of the opposition to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the fact is that President Bola Tinubu and his party, are jittery and need just a push to be kicked out of Aso Rock seat of power. On the basis of performance score sheet, the President and his gang do not stand much chance. Even the members of Tinubu’s garrulous kitchen cabinet and cocky foot soldiers know that their man is losing out, hence the panicky moves at gagging the opposition political parties.
Tinubu and APC’s slippery steps, offer good opportunities for the ADC. It however depends on how the party manages its affairs in the days ahead. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was in this situation in 2023. The then departing administration of the late President Muhammadu Buhari, had proven to be a colossal disaster to Nigerians. It was just for the PDP to put its house in order and get its acts correctly to prevent APC returning to power. But indiscipline, greed among the PDP handlers and absence of internal democracy within the party, cost it the chance of coming back to power.
Rather than zoning its ticket to the South, precisely the South East which has demonstrated enough support to the party, the PDP threw the race open. That singular miscalculation by PDP created room for the APC and President Bola Tinubu to be rigged to office by the Prof Mahmood Yakubu’s massively corrupt Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The country has been paying dearly for the crass indiscretion by the PDP ever since. As they say, the rest is history.
The ADC is at that point the PDP found itself in 2023. Baring distractions from the courts, how well the ADC manages its presidential primary will determine the extent it can go in 2027. For now, four aspirants – former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, erstwhile governor of Kano State, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, his Rivers State counterpart, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi and ex-Anambra State governor, Peter Obi – have shown interest in the party’s presidential ticket. None of the contenders is a greenhorn in the game. For instance, since the Jos, Plateau 1992 Social Democratic Party (SDP) Convention of the General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida ill-fated political transition programme in which he featured and nearly caused an upset, Atiku has shown pronounced interest in the presidency. The ambition has seen him contesting in many elections in the present dispensation. He was the PDP flag bearer in 2023. In terms of knowledge, network of contacts and human resource management, Atiku can be a good candidate. But his long stay in the race which must have triggered fatigue and apathy among his supporters, will be a huge obstacle to the ADC if he emerges the flag bearer.
Atiku’s northern background is equally a factor that may count against the party. With former President Buhari from Katsina State running a straight eight-year term as president, the temperament in some parts of the land does not support another northerner coming on board barely four years after his exit. That is also a major issue that will work against Kwankwaso, the 2023 presidential candidate of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP), despite his political sophistication and grassroots appeal in his northern region. Emergence of Atiku or Kwankwaso will most likely, alienate voters from the South and Middle Belt.
The major challenge for Amaechi, is hailing from same South-South region as former President Goodluck Jonathan. The Jonathan era is too recent for another South-South candidate to win the support of other Nigerians.
That leaves the ADC with Peter Obi as the arrowhead of the party’s 2027 presidential race. In 2023, the erstwhile Anambra governor gave a good account of himself in many parts of the country. Remarks from observers and some participants in the poll lately, indicate that Obi may have even won the poll but for the malfeasance of Prof Yakubu’s INEC in tilting the outcome to Tinubu – an ignoble feat that has earned the former INEC chairman an ambassadorial appointment.
Obi, who then ran on the ticket of the Labour Party (LP), is back on the blocks with renewed vigour and commitment to serve. He is from the South East, a zone that has been excluded from the presidency by successive administrations in the land. Equity and fairness demand that the region be given a chance for the office. Obi is however, not aspiring on the platform of regional or ethnic sentiments but on the strength of the agenda he has for national cohesion and development.
Since his days in LP, Obi has articulated and made brilliant presentations on how he intends to refocus Nigeria from the path of consumption to production. Before the recent World bank’s disclosure of poverty in Nigeria rising to 63 per cent in 2026, from 56 per cent in 2025, Obi had raised alarm on the dangerous trajectory the country was headed and proffered suggestions on the way out. He had talked about harnessing the agriculture potential in the country and channeling the energy of the youths to productive enterprise. He has equally spoken against wanton borrowing and frivolities by government officials.
For his practical spartan disposition to governance, the youth, the women and the down-trodden, who constitute the bulk of the voting population, have been flocking around him. Putting him forward as the candidate is the talisman the ADC needs to send Tinubu and the APC packing. But a miscalculation may cost the party so much. There lies the advice by Shakespeare on the tide in the affairs of men, which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. For ADC, that should be a huge lesson.
•Dr. Emeka Alex Duru is the Editor, TheNiche Newspapers, Lagos
