Niger Crisis: The imperative of adopting non-military solution in the resolution of predicament, By Tony Chinwe
The people of North-West and North-East part of Nigeria share historical, linguistic, cultural, economic, religious and social affinity with their Nigerien neighbours in Niger Republic. On paper they are separated by the imaginary boundary line that stretched over a distance of 1,608 kilometers in length and runs from the tri-point with Benin in the west to the tri-point with Chad in the east. This boundary which was part of the outcome of the partitioning of West Africa at the Berlin Conference of November 1884 – February, 1885 runs through the boundaries of present day Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno States.
In reality, however, members of the same families live and adopt Nationalities/Citizenship of both or either of the two Nations. Indeed a Nigerian in the border area naturally has better bonding with, and deeper sense of affiliation towards, the people of Niger Republic than fellow Nigerians in the North Central and Southern part of Nigeria. In this sense President Buhari was only being natural when he said that if Nigerians disturbed him during his retirement he would relocate to Niger Republic where he would have peace. If most Nigeriens are in support of their self-declared Military ruler, General Omar Abdourahamane Tchiani, it also means that, by extension, most Nigerians at the border towns are likely in support of him. A Nation as presently divided as Nigeria with flash points of militant activities all over the Country cannot afford to engage in an offensive war with a Country it shares boundary with like Niger Republic.
The apparently knee-jerk reaction of Nigerian Government to the Coup in Niger Republic by cutting off electrical power supply that, by agreement, Nigeria has been giving to them is most unfortunate, provocative and unwise for many reasons, three of which are:
Firstly, Niger gets about 70% of its electricity from Nigeria which is part of an agreement reached to dissuade Niger from building a dam on the River Niger because of its negative effect on the two hydo-electric dams built on River Niger at Kainji and Jebba. When Niger mulled a dam construction during Obasanjo regime, Nigeria re-affirmed their commitment to the supply of electrical power to them and the idea was dropped. Finally, in 2019, they started the construction of Kaindadji Dam which will deliver about 230 MW of electricity to that Country when completed in 2025. If further provoked by Nigeria, especially to the extent of declaring offensive war and sanctions against them, the junta can prematurely divert the waters of River Niger even before their dam is completed and this will aggravate Nigeria’s power supply and Security situation.
Secondly, a significant population of Nigerians are in sympathy with Nigeriens and the Military Junta because of perceived corruption and bad governance of the overthrown Civilian Government of President Mohamed Bazoum and these Nigerians are not in support of getting Nigeria into the fracas as enforcers/regional Police of West African Nations but only as genuine Peace-makers out to assist the Nation of Niger actualize their lofty goals of developing their Nation and exercising their independence among Nations of the World.
The natural and most potent anti-dote to Coup d’état in Africa is good governance. If the vast majority of a Nation opt for Military Government and joyfully welcome it, the use of external force to suppress their Will may be counter-productive and breed resentment against the invaders.
Thirdly, the nationals of 14 Francophone African Countries are feeling cheated and muscled by the Western Nations led by France out of their Natural resources. This consciousness has been heightened in the recent years by the public enlightenment of Africans on the matter by many activists and political economy analysts like Dr. Arikana Chihombori-Quao and Professor PLO Lumumba. Dr. Arikana Chihombori-Quao in particular referred to the PACT France forced their former Colonies to sign as a pre-condition for granting them independence, a pact that effectively took away their independence in exploiting their natural resources without the written consent of France. Part of the content of the said pact, according to her, is a provision that Francophone countries (14 of them) would deposit 85 percent of their bank reserves with the French treasury, which France invests in the French Stock Exchange and creams off the interest. According to Arikana, France may be taking up to $500billion from Francophone African yearly. The currencies of the 14 African countries in question are backed by the treasury in France and pegged to the Euro. French Gendarmes guard French businesses in some of these countries’ Capital as if the local police are not good enough. This excessive greed in exploiting the resources of these African Nations by France has created resentment in the nationals of these Countries against France, in particular, and the rest of the West and US, in general. The Countries are now turning to the BRICS Nations, especially Russia and France as preferred development Partners.
The nationals of Francophone Countries in ECOWAS will not likely support military action or effective sanctions against the military Junta of Niger because of their perception, wrongly or rightly, that President Mohamed Bazoum is a Puppet of the Government in Paris. This will leave Nigeria in a disastrous situation of swimming alone in the murky waters of a proxy war between Russia and France/USA over the Country’s Uranium.
France gets about 70% of its electrical power from nuclear energy. The fuel comes from uranium. Niger supplies about 8% of global uranium and France gets the bulk of its supply from Niger. The cessation of this supply will have serious impact on energy Security of France and to a lesser extent, a few other Western Nations.
With the global energy crisis occasioned by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe is re-assessing its energy supply mix. The renewables are not delivering enough; Fossil fuel is no longer a politically and environmentally wise choice. French have been vindicated for sticking with nuclear energy like Japan when the rest of the world is shying away from it due largely to safety concerns. The current situation in Niger is posing a significant threat to the French energy sector. They want to be in good terms with whoever controls the source of their precious uranium.
The British are building Hinkley Point C nuclear power station (HPC) to deliver over 3,200 MW when completed.
It is clear that any attempt to use force against the populist Military Junta in Niger will result into a protracted conflagration that may set the entire West Africa on fire. The other five African Countries currently under military rule will read it as existential threat to them and will join Niger Republic in fighting such external aggression. Already, Leaders of Mali and Burkina Faso have pledged their full support for the Military Leaders of Niger while declaring that a declaration of war against Niger is a declaration of War against Mali and Burkina Faso.
Nigeria should avoid being sucked into the destructive vortex of the proxy war that is raging between Russia and NATO to avoid being consumed in an unwarranted and egoistic war against a peaceful neighbour that has provided a buffer for us against militants from Libya and the Sahel belt. We are all witnesses to the situations in Iraq and Libya after the fall of their Leaders in wars largely motivated by quest for their natural resources – Oil & Gas. Let our Government concentrate on Economic development of our Nation, creation of jobs and internal security. Any meaningful intervention in Niger should be aimed at creating Peace and maximizing the welfare of their citizens through dialogue and diplomacy.
Tony Chinw
