“If the ADC coalition did not know before now, it has come to realize that it was Obi, not anyone else, that owns the momentum that sustained it. With his exit, that momentum has left the party.”
Before Peter Obi parted ways with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) a little over a week ago, I repeatedly sounded the alarm note in this Column. I had observed with concern that the ADC which was unveiled on a high note early July, 2025 by a conglomeration of notable opposition politicians was losing steam. The momentum that heralded it into the political arena was not sustained. The party did not build on the goodwill that brought it to limelight. It failed to seize the day.
A number of factors were responsible for the cold feet the party developed. The coalition could not make take a clear-cut position on where it was headed. The leadership did not play straight. It played hide and seek instead. It should be noted that the leadership of the political party was prevailed upon to make the pronouncement that matters. It was asked to make a categorical declaration on zoning. Will its presidential ticket go to the south or to the north ? Sadly, those behind the party were not prepared to take a position on this. They chose the path of negative dodge. The watching public did not like that cowardly passivity. They were reminded of the scenario that played out in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2022. The then main opposition political party had shunned the idea of zoning even when it was imperative to do so. After months of prevarication, it announced, to the disappointment of many, that its presidential ticket would be thrown open to both the south and the north. That unpopular pronouncement formed the basis of the cataclysm that tore the party apart.
The ADC which morphed into the main opposition political party at its launch in July 2025 was expected to take the bull by the horns. But little did we know that the party was being railroaded into a blind alley. Its drivers were not large-hearted enough to run a pan-Nigerian movement that would diminish and render impotent the clannish reign of President Bola Tinubu. Instead, those behind the ADC willingly, and with their eyes wide open, made the party available to be afflicted by the PDP disease. The ailment that killed PDP was that it wanted to present Nigerians with a fait accompli. Its presidential ticket was supposed to be zoned to the south at that time. But the forces behind the party succumbed to the predatory overreach of Atiku Abubakar, the northern politician who does not care a hoot about the interest of the south. The PDP presidential ticket was packaged and delivered to him. Zoning was thrown overboard.
History is about to repeat itself this time around. The ADC is treading the same path that ruined PDP. But what is uncanny about it is that the error is being repeated for the sake of the same northern politician, Atiku Abubakar. As was the case in 2023, it is the turn of the south to produce Nigeria’s president in 2027. But because Atiku does not respect the south as a political bloc, he must step forward to hold one end of the stick against the interest of the south.
From all indications, the ADC has been packaged in the same mould as PDP of 2022. Its presidential ticket has been reserved for the same man, Atiku. Those who support the disruption that comes with his ambition will always argue that the north, Atiku’s homeland, has the numbers. They will tell you that he will latch on the huge voting population from his region to defeat any southern candidate. But has this permutation ever worked? Not at all. A southerner emerged president in 2023, thus making nonsense of the much vaunted northern support base of Atiku.
Whatever may be the obverse of the argument being put forward by Atiku and his gang, the fact remains that the presidential ticket of the ADC has been reserved for Atiku. Zoning can go to hell for all that Atiku and his gang care.
It was for this reason that one of Atiku’s lackeys and a prominent member of the party, scuffed at Obi’s presidential aspiration by telling us that all the effort they put into building the ADC was not done for the sake of the south east. The statement was most divisive. It was in bad taste. It was a distasteful shot aimed at alienating a section of the party’s support base. It was a political bloomer coming from a political party that wants to wrest power from a rapacious order. But what do they care?
The refusal by the leadership of the ADC to recognize equity and justice as the essential ingredients that would launch the party into victory was largely responsible for Obi’s decision to pitch his tent elsewhere. With his exit, the ADC has woken up to an uncomfortable reality. The odds are against it. As we all have seen, Peter Obi’s exit has decapitated the ADC. The party lost several millions of its supporters in less than 24 hours after Obi’s declaration for the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC). Since then, resignations by party faithful from the ADC have been in droves. There is a clear and immediate realignment. Many say that they will go wherever Peter Obi goes. Right now, the ADC is bleeding. It is feeling like fish out of water. It has even made itself an object of mockery. The President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio, sardonically cashed in on this unpalatable situation. He declared ADC dead. The party may not have died in the way Akpabio put it. But it has inflicted a red eye on itself. The crash it is witnessing could have been avoided. But the hawks within did not make it possible.
If the ADC coalition did not know before now, it has come to realize that it was Obi , not anyone else, that owns the momentum that sustained it. ADC was believed to be a formidable platform that would give the All Progressives Congress a bloody nose because Peter Obi was involved. With his exit, that momentum has left the party. The excitement with which Nigerians received it is no longer there because Peter Obi, the heart and soul of the coalition, has decided to operate outside the confines of the party.
Even though many believe that those who killed the ADC coalition committed a tactical blunder, there are those who believe that it was a deliberate and calculated move aimed at ensuring that the affliction called Tinubu remains in the saddle beyond May 29, 2027. Moles are being fingered amongst a good number of them. When one of Atiku’s sons, for instance, recently declared support for Tinubu’s presidency, many were ill at ease with it. Atiku tried to explain away that strangeness. But many were not taken in. Whatever may be the case, we must recognize the fact that people are free to make their choices either as individuals or as a collective. Those behind the ADC have chosen the path they want to toe. So does Peter Obi. There is no need for either party to try to prey on each other. Each should be guided by the philosophy of letting beings be. Let Obi and his army of supporters be. And let those on the other side of the divide be. If there are contradictions that exist, they will be resolved, one way or the other, in the fullness of time.
